Pucker Up — 2023’s Oil Ride Is Just Starting

Once again, strange things are afoot at the EIA. 

Now, if you were to don a tinfoil hat and look at the EIA’s track record for the last few years, it’s quite likely you’d walk away with an ill opinion of the agency. 

There’s a good chance you might even think something nefarious was going on there and start throwing out a couple dirty words like "ineptitude" or "manipulation." 

It’s a shaky track record to be sure, and one my veteran readers recognized long ago. 

Almost a year ago to the day, amidst a barrage of exorbitant oil price predictions, the EIA was telling us that demand for gasoline in the U.S. had fallen to 8.5 million barrels per day. 

What makes that such an absurd claim is the fact that it meant our gasoline demand was lower than it was in August 2020, when the United States was in full COVID lockdown and our barren highways looked like a scene out of The Walking Dead. 

Or perhaps the shady adjustments made on a near-weekly basis cloud your mind with doubt over the accuracy of the agency’s reporting.

Of course, a more recent fudging of the numbers occurred last week, when the EIA was forced to revise its oil demand numbers for the month of May. 

It turns out that demand was 973,000 barrels per day higher than the EIA had thought, putting our consumption for May at 20.77 million barrels per day!

Who wants to bet that U.S. oil demand breaks an all-time high this month or that the world’s crude consumption hits a new record high in 2023? 

Truth is, it doesn't matter whose forecast you’re looking at… Whether it’s from the EIA, IEA, OPEC, or any Wall Street firm like Goldman Sachs, they all say the same thing — the world will consume more oil than ever before in 2023!

This Oil Ride Is Just Starting

Look, I try not to begrudge the hardworking folks at the EIA.

I really do try. 

After all, the bean counters there aren’t geologists, nor are they profusely sweating in 100-degree heat on the deck of an oil rig in the middle of nowhere, Texas. 

As one British statistician put it, “Statisticians, like artists, have the bad habit of falling in love with their models.” 

To be fair to the EIA, everyone seems to play this game of smoke and mirrors when it comes to oil statistics — OPEC has infamously cheated on its quotas for decades. It just so happens that the more egregious fumbling of these numbers took place after the U.S. drained its strategic reserves by half. 

But while statistics are pliable, facts are stubborn things. 

And that, dear reader, is where we gain the advantage. 

As we head down the back half of 2023, the fundamentals are turning incredibly bullish as supply/demand dynamics tighten. 

More importantly, the hocus-pocus cast over today’s oil reporting can only mask reality for so long. 

Here’s the best part: We don’t need $100-per-barrel oil for our oil stocks to flourish.

Even Fitch downgrading the U.S. earlier this week won’t be enough to keep a lid on WTI prices, which have already rebounded back over $80 per barrel today. 

The problem is that the clock is already ticking down on oil’s investment window.  

Still trying to figure out where to look?

Well, I would start my search with these must-buy oil stocks that are paying off in spades for early investors.

Until next time,

Keith Kohl

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A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.

For nearly two decades, Keith has been providing in-depth coverage of the hottest investment trends before they go mainstream — from the shale oil and gas boom in the United States to the red-hot EV revolution currently underway. Keith and his readers have banked hundreds of winning trades on the 5G rollout and on key advancements in robotics and AI technology.

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